Update 16/02/2020

Hi All, 

As mentioned last week, we have been getting several questions regarding the frequency of bets recently, and I thought I’d take some time to share a few thoughts. 

Ultimately this is down to the following reasons. 

Night Before selections 
Jan/Feb are Historically Tough
We continue to adapt to the changing Bookmaker terms ( BOG) 

Let me elaborate 

Night before Selections

I think one of the biggest complaints we see is people losing Betting accounts for being ahead of the bookmakers on pricing. A lot of this stems from people betting the night before, We had a lot of success with this over the years but its almost a weekly affair now to see people losing accounts and we are of the belief its related to taking these early prices. 

We took a conscious decision to move to the morning for the weaker meetings and days where there is little or no liquidity in the market for the bookmaker to “lay off” the risk.

This has led to a small decrease in horses we feel have value in the morning during the week (weekends and festivals the markets are generally very strong). We have a watchlist of many horses and when we were taking the bets early we saw members losing accounts. Our thought process is that we would like to try and keep accounts open longer and not play into the patterns that the bookmakers don’t like. Personally I’d rather an account that lasts 3-6 months as opposed to 1-2 big bets that sees accounts getting restricted. 

With the recently introduced KYC ( Know your customer) controls its start to become more difficult to open accounts also so again account preservation does play a big part in how we pick and post our bets. 

Jan/Feb are Historically Tough

For those who have been with us a while, You will all know we believe there is more consistency during the flat season. Last year we done very well in the jumps. But we attributed that to some of the “Nicer” weather we had last year. This year the AW has let us down and with the exception of a few winners at Dundalk we have not hit the results we expect. 

Lets not rule out some of the bad luck we had on some of the jumps but that’s part of the game and it comes down to results as that’s what customers pay for, 

We are not going to put bets up for the sake of it. Sure we understand that people paying for a service want bets , but we see the service as trying to return profit over the long term. We feel the pain also but with poor racing and many of the horses on our watchlist offering little/no value  we would have a bigger problem if we chased. 

We have been publicly tracking these for 14 months now and 13 of them are profitable. I would like to say we hope its fair to get between 20-40 points a month in these tough months and hope to bring on the bigger months as we enter the Flat season and the bigger festivals where historical we do very well. 

We continue to adapt to the changing Bookmaker terms ( BOG) 

As much as the Bookmakers are changing their terms we are trying to adapt also.  I anticipate that soon we will only see BOG after 11am but while we still can get value at 8am we will aim for that timeframe to put our selections out. There are no immediate plans but should the bookies force us to get BOG later we may need to adapt but we will announce any changes in advance so you are all informed. 

Good luck all,  I hope this has given some explanation to those who have been asking, As always feel free to email us on peterstoptips@gmail.com 

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